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“Tariff - that’s a beautiful word, isn’t it?” Lately, all we seem to talk about are tariffs, but the discussions rarely focus on orthography. For some, tariffs signify a new beginning, driven by the resurgence of American manufacturing due to re-shoring. For others, tariffs spell inflation, economic uncertainty, and strained diplomatic relations. For those in the first camp, let’s temper our enthusiasm, and for those in the second, let’s lower our defenses. Let’s examine this issue from an apolitical perspective to understand its implications for our economy, especially in the context of client portfolios.

Definitions matter. We learn this in elementary school, if not before, as we are tested on our ability to connect vocabulary words to brief descriptions. Then, the definitions feel absolute, unambiguous, and concrete. However, as we develop and progress into reality, we realize that definitions are relative, ambiguous, and abstract in many instances of life. This situation is the case and, therefore, the plight of the investment advisor.

While this subject could take many forms and pursue different avenues, we will focus on Equity allocations within portfolios.

First up: equity capitalization.

Over the past decade, the financial landscape has witnessed significant shifts, one of which has gone unnoticed. Correlations. Notably, the correlations between equity and fixed income have increased, and domestic and international equities have become more highly correlated. These trends have profound implications for portfolio diversification and risk management. Important note: correlations change constantly over time.